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JB
Jason Bellier
@neostonks · Jul 21

What do you think of yesterday's drop in $TSM stock? Are you buying? There may have been better buying this year, but 5% down is not a bad thing. I saw that even Cathie Wood and Ark Invest immediately bought 28,909 shares of Taiwan Semiconductor.

WS

Cathie is a fearless woman but I won't follow her this time :-D

RR

I'd say you can buy it for less. I prefer to avoid Taiwan.

YE

If it wasn't for TSMC from Taiwan, this company could sell for 2x as much and it wouldn't be overpriced;) I clicked a few parameters in the screener and the only mega cap company there is TSM https://i.ibb.co/cJGZYpL/finscreen.jpg

BW

I wouldn't exactly take the semetrics as a model. I have bought at lower prices :-)

NG

I guess it was to be expected given the circumstances. Plus, the company had warned before, so it's not that much of a shock.

YE

For me, nothing unexpected, the decline in visibility was clear, as well as in the memories it will continue until the end of the year, but there should be some rebound if the soft landing turns out as expected. The cost and lack of skilled workers was also mentioned by the management, I am very curious to see how this will translate into margins. IMHO it doesn't make much sense that the same cyphers cost different amounts because of where they are made. This diversification of factories will be paid for by everyone and TSMC will only have more money to increase margins with each additional production off the islands.

I was just a bit puzzled by the fact that AI demand is not so high to cover the general decline, so probably a giant bubble is being inflated, which is mainly made up of marketers, and it is yet to be calculated how the investment in HW should return in the future. Interestingly, Nvidia didn't react to the price yesterday, so they'll probably make it somewhere else;)

YE

So to add to the demand for AI cycles, it currently makes up about 6% of total production. The problem is that they don't have enough production capacity, so they plan to increase it at about 50% CAGR in the future to meet the increase in demand. At the same time, the supply structure for server farms will probably change, where it won't be driven so much by CPUs but will be GPUs and ASICs.

MW

I shopped at $79 this year so I'm happy so far, too bad about the Arizona plant, I wouldn't expect it to be difficult to find qualified workers. Now that I mention it, is there any way to know what percentage of the job openings on the market are specialty positions?

MD

Interesting, I'm still afraid of the environment where it is, but otherwise it's true that the demand for this is great, the price has dropped and if it drops some more I'll think a lot about it, plus I also like the plant in Arizona, although there will be a postponement, but just the fact that they will have production in the US is good I think.

SJ

I shopped at $92 this year, but after yesterday I bought a little more. The outlook for this year is not good, but demand will pick up again. I'm more sorry about the postponement of the Arizona race.